Preamble
I wrote this article a couple of days ago. It is now Thursday night. In the 30+ hours since I published this article, I have seen interviews with Mitchell during which he said he asked for the TV’s to be turned off in the Chicago Bears training facilities so that he didn’t have to listen to the continual criticism being broadcast throughout the building, all day long. That really made me think about something. Before you read this article, just take a moment to consider this paradigm: You are now Mitchell Trubisky for the next few paragraphs.
OK. Mitchell, you are under fire. Your life is just beginning, and people are calling you a failure. You are a toddler by football standards. You are younger than Aaron Rogers was when he finally started playing after being a backup to Brett Favre in Green Bay for three years. You didn’t have that luxury of the time to learn how to be a quarterback by watching a master practitioner named Favre, all the while undergoing intensive skill training for three continuous years before being named the starter!
Although you have assembled stats that rival Aaron Roger’s early years, you are now being called a complete failure because you have had a rocky opening to your third season. You missed a couple of games due to a separated shoulder, and you missed throws to a few open receivers, and now everyone is calling you a failure. You are not only a failure, but you are also the worst failure in football history. Let’s not leave anything to chance here. You suck and you will never make it as a football player. You are done.
You are also 25 years old. Are you mature enough to handle that type of heat? Probably not. The male brain is still developing through the age of 27 or 28. You are still a young man, full of emotion and hormones. You can’t possibly handle that type of criticism. I don’t think any 25-year-old should be subjected to such scrutiny. It is unfair and it is hypocritical for anybody to punish a young man in such a way.
It doesn’t matter to the fans that you threw for six touchdowns in a game last year, or that you ran for more yards than Aaron Rogers ever did in a season. It doesn’t matter that your team went from last place to first place in your second season. This is a business driven by a “what have you done for me lately?” mentality. Football fans are quick to throw you under the bus when you are not the bright and shiny star or the new kid on the block. Let me tell you something Mitchell, you are not the one who sucks. The suckers are football fans. They are the assholes.
You have the athleticism. You have a competitive spirit. You have speed, and the ability to throw on the run, just like Aaron Rogers. You are faster than he is. You will be just like him one day. Give yourself some time to grow and learn. If your coach realizes his mistakes (i.e., bottling you up as a pocket passer and overcoaching you), you will come around and play to your capabilities. The Bears will be a balanced team and you will lead them to victory. Keep fighting and start proving the doubters wrong. You are the gifted athlete that can do things most of the football fans could only hope of doing. Go do your thing, escape from the pocket, get the first down, move the chains and then throw a laser touchdown. Prove that those suckholes are wrong. I know you can do it. Just let it happen. Good luck this weekend against the Lions!
Fast forward a week
Mitchell threw three touchdowns against the Lions and the Bears won the game. The Chicago Tribune also published a comprehensive article about why the Bears chose Trubusiky over Watson and Mahomes. This is a great article, featuring very detailed research and clear and concise logic. I think everyone that is interested in this topic should read this article.
Introduction
This article contains a couple of simple ideas that might be immediately dismissed by many people familiar with the woes of the 2019 Chicago Bears. That is OK with me, as long as you take a few minutes to read my ideas and the data that support them. I like to write these timely articles because I have found that I can return to them a couple of years into the future to prove my point(s).
The 25-year-old quarterback (QB) of the Chicago Bears (Mitchell Trubisky = MT) is currently in the National Football League frying pan. At the half-way point of the 2019 season, he ranks near the bottom of every passing statistical category and his team is floundering with a record of 3-5 after excelling during a surprising 2018 season during which they finished 12-4.
Although this was supposed to be a year of continued QB development for MT with high expectations for the team, some big changes have happened to the dynamics of the offense and MT has experienced a regression in performance. This article discusses these changes and how some additional adjustments could be used to improve the performance of MT and his offense.
Background
When MT was drafted #2 in 2017, there were some shockwaves sent through the ranks of the NFL. I remember watching the event live, and when MT’s name was called, I asked myself “Who is that?”. Normally I know who the top 10 picks are going to be because I listen to too many pre-drafts, or mock-draft simulations on Sirius Radio.
In a particularly insightful article on the day after that draft, the bleacher report wrote these two diametrically opposed viewpoints of Trubisky and this #2 selection (see update section in this article):
Despite starting just one full season at North Carolina, the 6’2″, 222-pounder might be the most polished signal-caller in this draft class. Athletic and accurate with a quick release, refined mechanics and superb footwork, he’s coming off a junior season in which he threw 30 touchdown passes to only six interceptions.
Obviously, that was a series of insights that supported the high draft position of Trubisky. On the other hand, they also wrote this statement that is squarely based on historical NFL data:
But the reality is a lot of first-round picks who look and feel like future NFL stars don’t become NFL stars. In fact, at the quarterback position, the pick pans out less than half the time.
While we can’t call any of them busts yet, the jury remains out on 2016 first-round quarterbacks Jared Goff (who was a mess as a rookie), Carson Wentz (who faded after a hot start) and Paxton Lynch (who hardly saw the field).
In the 10 drafts that preceded that one, 26 quarterbacks were selected in the first round. Only 10 of those 26 are NFL starters right now. Only 14 are currently under contract with NFL teams. Only one—Joe Flacco—has won a Super Bowl.
Based on that analysis, finding your future “franchise quarterback” in the first round of the NFL draft is less likely than you might intuitively expect.
In this particular case, the Bears chose to bypass a QB (Deshawn Watson) that played superbly in two national championship games against Alabama and a highly touted, lively-armed QB (Patrick Mahomes) in favor of MT. This draft decision was particularly perplexing since MT only really played one collegiate season (junior year) as the starting QB at North Carolina.
Sometimes the player performance data that has been collected since a decision like this was made can make it easy to verify the absurdity of the decision. In this case, the 2.5 year NFL performance of both Mahomes and Watson speaks for itself, and I don’t have to show a bunch of data to prove the point that MT should not have been drafted before either of those two players. The Bears did not make the best decision drafting MT at #2, but that does not mean that he can’t develop into an excellent player with the proper coaching. I think that MT can be a good-to-great player if his development is handled the correct way and his natural athletic skills are accentuated.
What Can Be Done to Improve the Performance of MT?
NFL football is a complex game. It can be broken down in many ways to create strategies for winning. Strategies only work, however, if the players can implement them properly.
When you are a quarterback, there is an enormous mental load placed on you. The brain processing power needed to be a great player is significant. Coaches will tell us game repetitions are the most important tool needed to create the memory of how to instantly respond in real game situations, thereby reducing the QB mental load and making the game slow down for these players. This is why they say that QBs will incrementally improve as their repetitions and experience increases. This improvement also depends upon the stability of the offensive line because these players are the ones that provide the QB the opportunity to make plays.
With this perspective, I think many times the coaches overlook the importance and role of pure athletic instincts. In some cases, the coaches try to remove or suppress the instinctive parts of the game in favor of developing strategies that they want to create.
For example, a coach may say that a QB has “happy feet”, so they coach them to have more quiescent feet. Although scouts and knowledgeable trainers might think this is a good move, changes like these can disrupt the natural athletic instincts that a player possesses. For some players, happy feet are a sign of alertness and preparation for a quick escape from tough situations. In many sports, athletes are taught to play on the balls of their feet – it is drilled in them during their developmental years that it becomes instinctive. I believe that MTs third year regression has something to do with the way he is being coached. Let me explain.
Last year, I had the chance to participate in the first NFL Big-Data Bowl. We were given data from the first six weeks of the year 2017 (Figure 1), which happens to be the beginning games of MT’s career. I will use some of this data to make an upcoming point.
Figure 1 – Data provided to us for the first NFL Big-Data Bowl.
If we look at the first three years of statistics for MT, we see a startling change in the 2019 rushing statistics, as shown in the last Rushing line of Figure 2. Approximately through seven games, MT has tried 1/3 fewer rushes (11/34) and his distance production has dropped 80% (46/210 yards). Even the casual observer of Bears football has noticed this change. OK. Now I bet you are thinking, “so what?”.
Figure 2 – MT career stats (from ESPN).
This is a big change for a couple of reasons. We have heard that Coach Nagy and others during interviews making the following statements about training MT to do the following:
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“to see the entire field, to work his way through the progressions”,
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“to have his eyes where my eyes are”,
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“to be more of a pocket passer, with good footwork”
In other words, Nagy is trying to get MT to be more of a pocket passer and less of a scrambler. I can’t see any other way of interpreting that type of coaching. Consequently, the data is supporting this change, with a dramatic drop in his rushing statistics.
I could understand this viewpoint if you had a non-athletic quarterback. However, Mitch is very athletic. If you haven’t seen this competition in which MT is off the charts on throwing accuracy, you must check it out!
In real game situations, however, his athleticism is demonstrated when he escapes the pocket and rushes the ball. Figure 3 compares all the QBs from the first six games of the year in 2017. If you don’t see MT, that is because he is an outlier! Look at the lower right corner to see who is the fastest running QB by far.
Figure 3 – How does the max speed of a QB change with Age? MT is in the lower right corner, with an average top speed of 8.5 mph. To learn more about this calculation, download the powerpoint file that is included in the referenced article on the NFL Big-Data Bowl. Click the image for a full-resolution version.
To top it off, MT has proven to be even more accurate while throwing on the run. All of this data indicates he is a special athlete that should be trained to his strengths, not to some preconceived notion of what he should be (i.e., a pocket passer). Nagy needs to encourage Mitch to run, not the other way around. This has been a big conceptual mistake and it has allowed the defenses to develop schemes that are working well against the Bears.
The Problem and the Solution
There is nothing wrong with Nagy trying to help MT see more of the field and to go through the play progressions. That is classic coaching. The problem arises when the offensive line has been changed, with a new center put in place, key injuries, and less efficient playing being done. In 2019, the play of the Bears offensive line has been, well, let’s just say it has been offensive!
Much of MTs degradation this year is because of the diminished performance of the players around him. If you give any decent NFL QB time to throw, they will shred a defense (e.g., what Aaron Rogers has been doing in 2019). Without time to get through the progressions, however, and with his run-instinct curtailed, MT hasn’t been able to improve this year.
Nagy needs to change course and tell MT to run the ball when the pocket is collapsing. He needs to script some QB running plays into the game plan like he did last year when MT was able to keep the first-downs coming via his excellent scrambling skills. MT needs to stop worrying about finding the second and third options when the offensive line is getting overwhelmed. This situation seems to be happening more often because the opposing teams have identified this predictable behavior.
Nagy needs to let MT be MT and play the game by using his athletic instincts. The Bears defense needs it, MT’s confidence needs it, and the team will begin to have a whole lot more fun.
Mitchell is only 25 years old! He needs more time and experience, especially considering his lack of collegiate football experience. He has the athletic skills to excel. He needs some coaching adjustments to be made to help him improve.
I was at the Tampa Bay game last year when MT compiled the six-touchdown highlights shown in Figure 4. As you will notice, he is shown on the run in a couple of the figures!
Figure 4 – MT’s six-touchdown game vs Tampa Bay in 2018. I was at the game and it was a delight to see him playing with such confidence.
This offensive version of the 2019 Bears is unacceptable. It is time to change.
Post-Script
This article formed in my head during my sleep last night. I woke up at 3 am ready to write it down because I knew it must be done.
As Karma would have it, a little while later, the electronic edition of the Chicago Tribune arrived in my email inbox. I flipped through it and found an interesting article by David Haugh. Since the topic is so consistent with my article, I decided to include it here.
Published Today (11/6/19) in the Chicago Tribune by David Haugh
Ravens get it, so when will Bears? Adapting game plan to QB’s skills makes sense.
To improve his body language, Mitch Trubisky last week studied the television copy of the Bears-Chargers game at the behest of coach Matt Nagy — who got the idea from his mentor, Chiefs coach Andy Reid.
Perhaps this week Reid can suggest Nagy watch Sunday’s nationally televised Ravens-Patriots matchup to see how a team maximizes the talent of an athletic quarterback.
The Ravens routed the Patriots 37-20 with a dynamic offense that revolves around the unique skill set of Lamar Jackson, a league MVP contender.
In no way does Trubisky pose as big of an all-around threat as the multidimensional Jackson — only a few quarterbacks do. But the Bears can learn from the way the Ravens have tailored their play-calling to accentuate Jackson’s strengths.
Bucking convention, coach John Harbaugh’s offensive staff incorporated Jackson’s feet as much as his arm and became an AFC front-runner. They moved the pocket and called designed quarterback runs to take advantage of Jackson’s elusiveness. They fit the weekly game plan around their quarterback’s style rather than force their quarterback’s style into the weekly game plan.
The Bears have yet to do that with Trubisky, their biggest liability offensively but far from the only one. After the Packers held the Bears without a touchdown in the opener, cornerback Tramon Williams loudly revealed the successful game plan to “make Mitch play quarterback,’’ and Nagy inadvertently has contributed to that notion by making Trubisky a more stationary passer.
Defenses don’t respect the Bears’ play-action passing game because Nagy struggles so mightily committing to the run. That tendency reduces the number of rollouts that, for whatever reason, improve Trubisky’s accuracy and effectiveness.
A conventional pocket passer he isn’t. Accept that and adjust. If the harness Trubisky wears on his left shoulder limits his mobility, then the Bears should consider resting the quarterback.
This season has exposed the fact Trubisky doesn’t throw well enough to play if he cannot run his way out of trouble, which he did successfully in 2018, when football life was good in Chicago.
Nagy came to the Bears touted as an offensive guru, much of which was on display during a 12-4 season that stamped him the NFL Coach of the Year. But what we all neglected to see — perhaps blinded by the disco ball inside “Club Dub” — was how a defensive anomaly contributed to the Bears’ offensive identity.
The Bears led the league last season with a ridiculously high 36 takeaways but have only 11 this year. All those short fields and big leads that allowed for so much offensive imagination have been missing in 2019. The only thing opposing defensive coordinators find baffling is figuring out what exactly the Bears do well enough to eliminate first.
Trubisky is last among starting quarterbacks with 173.9 passing yards per game. He is 30th in passer rating at 80.0 and 33rd in yards per attempt (5.6) in a passing scheme that stretches the field more horizontally than vertically. In six games, Trubisky has the same number of touchdown passes as he does carries on designed running plays — five.
A quarterback who merely needed to put up middle-of-the-pack numbers for the Bears to maintain playoff hopes instead has floundered badly enough to rank among the league’s worst, affecting every offensive player in the huddle. You know teammates know this.
Ample reason exists for Nagy to replace Trubisky with backup Chase Daniel for the Lions game. No, not all the fault lies on Trubisky’s shoulders. Key drops against the Eagles hurt. And a historically bad first half was as much a result of the offensive line as the quarterback — as WSCR-AM analyst Olin Kreutz tweeted Tuesday.
“Just watched the All-22 film of the first half of the Eagles game,’’ Kreutz posted on his Twitter account. “Don’t put any of that on Mitch the Line has to play better. Mitch had no chance…Yes, that was hard for me to write.’’
Still, it’s inconceivable that an NFL coach who has endured Trubisky’s body of work can convince his 52 other players that Trubisky gives the Bears the best chance to beat the Lions. The entire organization no longer can be all about the development of Trubisky. Better alternatives could exist on the open market in the offseason, in order of preference, from Teddy Bridgewater to Marcus Mariota to Cam Newton to Nick Foles to Andy Dalton. But that’s a deeper discussion for another day.
When it comes to the most important position on the field, the present outweighs the future for the 3-5 Bears. Win a game. Worry about the quarterback’s psyche later. Who says the Bears can’t bench Trubisky now and bring him back if Daniel fails? Only one rule guides NFL teams stuck in a four-game losing streak: Do whatever it takes to end it. An efficient Daniel increases the odds of ending it more than an erratic Trubisky does.
If Nagy insists on sticking with Trubisky as the starter against the Lions — as he indicated with Monday’s endorsement — then he must help the quarterback help himself. Get his adrenaline pumping. Script an early quarterback draw. Move the pocket. Use the I formation to establish the run and set up the play-action pass. Utilize what Trubisky still does well and make it about him, not the offense.
The way the Ravens did with their young quarterback.
David Haugh is a special contributor to the Chicago Tribune and co-host of the “Mully and Haugh Show” weekdays from 5-9 a.m. on WSCR-AM-670.
Great coaching advice, and with the data to back it up! The best professional advice I received was from my first boss when he told me “Be yourself”. Sounds like that’s what Mitch needs to hear as well.